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Credit Risk Modelling, - information on credit risk modelling and decision analytics; A Guide to Modeling Counterparty Credit Risk – SSRN Research Paper, July 2007; Defaultrisk.com – research and white papers on credit risk modelling; The Journal of Credit Risk publishes research on credit risk theory and practice.
The Merton model, [1] developed by Robert C. Merton in 1974, is a widely used "structural" credit risk model. Analysts and investors utilize the Merton model to understand how capable a company is at meeting financial obligations, servicing its debt, and weighing the general possibility that it will go into credit default.
Financial risk modeling is the use of formal mathematical and econometric techniques to measure, monitor and control the market risk, credit risk, and operational risk on a firm's balance sheet, on a bank's accounting ledger of tradeable financial assets, or of a fund manager's portfolio value; see Financial risk management.
In business, predictive models exploit patterns found in historical and transactional data to identify risks and opportunities. Models capture relationships among many factors to allow assessment of risk or potential associated with a particular set of conditions, guiding decision-making for candidate transactions. [2]
One objective of credit analysis is to look at both the borrower and the lending facility being proposed and to assign a risk rating.The risk rating is derived by estimating the probability of default by the borrower at a given confidence level over the life of the facility, and by estimating the amount of loss that the lender would suffer in the event of default.
The term standardized approach (or standardised approach) refers to a set of credit risk measurement techniques proposed under Basel II, which sets capital adequacy rules for banking institutions. Under this approach the banks are required to use ratings from external credit rating agencies to quantify required capital for credit risk. In many ...
Risk sensitivity - Capital requirements based on internal estimates are more sensitive to the credit risk in the bank's portfolio of assets; Incentive compatibility - Banks must adopt better risk management techniques to control the credit risk in their portfolio to minimize regulatory capital; To use this approach, a bank must take two major ...
Moody's products include Market Implied Ratings (MIR) and Expected Default Frequency (EDF) software packages. MIR applies Moody's ratings scale to credit and equity market price signals so users can identify investment opportunities; EDF estimates a company's credit default probability based on quantitative factors including market capitalization, equity, volatility and capital structure. [35]