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Independence is a fundamental notion in probability theory, as in statistics and the theory of stochastic processes.Two events are independent, statistically independent, or stochastically independent [1] if, informally speaking, the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other or, equivalently, does not affect the odds.
In probability theory, conditional dependence is a relationship between two or more events that are dependent when a third event occurs. [1] [2] For example, if and are two events that individually increase the probability of a third event , and do not directly affect each other, then initially (when it has not been observed whether or not the ...
In mathematics, the Crofton formula, named after Morgan Crofton (1826–1915), (also Cauchy-Crofton formula) is a classic result of integral geometry relating the length of a curve to the expected number of times a "random" line intersects it.
Events A and B can be assumed to be independent i.e. knowledge that A is late has minimal to no change on the probability that B will be late. However, if a third event is introduced, person A and person B live in the same neighborhood, the two events are now considered not conditionally independent.
In probability theory, the chain rule [1] (also called the general product rule [2] [3]) describes how to calculate the probability of the intersection of, not necessarily independent, events or the joint distribution of random variables respectively, using conditional probabilities.
The probability is sometimes written to distinguish it from other functions and measure P to avoid having to define "P is a probability" and () is short for ({: ()}), where is the event space, is a random variable that is a function of (i.e., it depends upon ), and is some outcome of interest within the domain specified by (say, a particular ...
Examples: If X 1 and X 2 are independent geometric random variables with probability of success p 1 and p 2 respectively, then min(X 1, X 2) is a geometric random variable with probability of success p = p 1 + p 2 − p 1 p 2. The relationship is simpler if expressed in terms probability of failure: q = q 1 q 2.
The formula was also adapted for financial markets and was used to estimate the probability distribution of losses on pools of loans or bonds. During a downside regime, a large number of investors who have held positions in riskier assets such as equities or real estate may seek refuge in 'safer' investments such as cash or bonds.