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Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers [ citation needed ] [ dubious – discuss ] , who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.
Sports betting systems are sets of events that when combined for a particular game for a particular sport represent a profitable betting scenario. Since sports betting involves humans, there is no deterministic edge to the house or the gambler. Systems supposedly allow the gambler to have an edge or an advantage.
Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
A betting strategy (also known as betting system) is a structured approach to gambling, in the attempt to produce a profit. To be successful, the system must change the house edge into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a perpetual motion machine. [ 1 ]
Even if the gambler can tolerate betting ~1,000 times their original bet, a streak of 10 losses in a row has an ~11% chance of occurring in a string of 200 plays. Such a loss streak would likely wipe out the bettor, as 10 consecutive losses using the martingale strategy means a loss of 1,023x the original bet.
Due-column wagering is considered a fixed-profit system because the due-column bettor determines the desired profit before betting begins. However, whereas with percentage-based money-management systems the bettor varies their bets as a percentage of their bankroll, with a series of due-column bets they bet the amount necessary to make their desired profit plus the total amount necessary to ...
Oscar's grind is the same as Martingale-based and Labouchère system in the sense that if there is an infinite amount to wager and time, every session will make a profit. [ citation needed ] Not meeting these conditions will result in an inevitable loss of the entire stake in the long run.
Rating systems provide an alternative to traditional sports standings which are based on win–loss–tie ratios. College football players in the United States. In the United States, the biggest use of sports ratings systems is to rate NCAA college football teams in Division I FBS, choosing teams to play in the College Football Playoff.