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If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters (LV) is prioritized, then registered voters (RV), then adults (A). Polling in the 2020 election was considerably less accurate than in the 2016 election, and possibly more inaccurate than in any election since 1996. [1]
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) determined that candidates could qualify for the first two Democratic primary debates either by polling at 1% or higher in at least three national or early-state (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina) polls sponsored or conducted by designated organizations (in different regions if by the same organization) published after January 1, 2019, up ...
[1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. [ 3 ]
Pollsters likely will cheer this year’s results, which are not remotely as shocking as those of 2020 when, overall, the polls turned in their worst performance in 40 years.
Assessing the accuracy of polls is much more complicated than it looks.
There are 17 days remaining from Election Day. As the date is closer to arriving, more polls will come out. However, the reliability of the polls has been questioned recently.
This is a list of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2020 United States presidential election.The persons named in the polls were declared candidates or received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
Polling seemed to be closest to accurate in the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, states that if Harris had won would have given her the presidency.