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The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.
Across the 12 general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in six elections (majorities in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017 (by a majority of only 3), 2019, 2024; hung parliament for 2010).
The Conservatives led the polls for the two years following the 2019 general election, which included Brexit, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccine rollout during the leadership of Boris Johnson.
[22] According to the House of Commons, Parliament first met on 9 July 2024 [ 23 ] [ 24 ] [ 25 ] meaning that unless Parliament is dissolved earlier it will be automatically dissolved on 9 July 2029, and the latest an election could be held is 15 August 2029.
Opinion polling for the 2019 general election was carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
Both Reform UK and the Green Party also gained from the Conservatives. Liz Truss lost her own seat of South West Norfolk to Labour. [ 6 ] The only Conservative gain in England was Leicester East , where a split Labour vote between the official labour candidate and former Labour MPs Claudia Webbe and Keith Vaz depressed the Labour vote.
Labour won in Wales but lost 8% of its 2017 vote share and six seats, retaining 22 out of 40, while the Conservatives advanced by 2.5% and gained six seats, winning 14 in total. [ 300 ] The SNP advanced by 8.1% and gained 13 seats to win 48 out of 59, gaining several seats from the Conservatives and Labour.
When the model has been estimated over all available data with none held back, the MSPE of the model over the entire population of mostly unobserved data can be estimated as follows.