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George Gallup predicted a Roosevelt win, based on statistical random sampling within 1.1 percent of the Literary Digest results. The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts indicated the value of modern statistical methods; according to data collected in the Gallup poll, the Literary Digest poll failed primarily due to non-response bias (Roosevelt won ...
Gallup, George Horace, ed. The Gallup Poll; Public Opinion, 1935–1971 3 vol (1972) summarizes results of each poll. Hawbaker, Becky Wilson. "Taking 'the Pulse of Democracy': George Gallup, Iowa, and the Origin of the Gallup Poll". The Palimpsest 74(3) 98–118. Description of Gallup's Iowa years and their impact on his development.
George Gallup's American Institute of Public Opinion achieved national recognition by correctly predicting the result to within 1.4%, using a much smaller sample size of just 50,000. [5] Gallup's final poll before the election predicted that Roosevelt would receive 55.7% of the popular vote and 481 electoral votes: the official tally saw ...
Perot's 18.9% of the popular vote made him the most successful non-major party presidential candidate in terms of popular vote since Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 election. His share of the popular vote was also the highest ever for a candidate who did not win any electoral votes .
Gallup was unequivocal in reporting his final pre-election poll that year, writing: “Dewey will win the Presidential election with a substantial majority of electoral votes.”
In a United States presidential election, the popular vote is the total number or the percentage of votes cast for a candidate by voters in the 50 states and Washington, D.C.; the candidate who gains the most votes nationwide is said to have won the popular vote.
An outlier in presidential races, the 2000 election between former Vice President Al Gore and then-Texas Gov. George Bush was not decided until Dec. 12, 2000, five weeks after Election Day.
Poll source Date Richard Nixon Republican Hubert Humphrey Democratic George Wallace American Ind. Undecided/Other Leading by ()Election Results: November 5, 1968