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Even the world’s most powerful computers can’t say precisely where the Category 5 storm is headed for landfall when it hits the U.S.
The first dynamical hurricane track forecast model, the Sanders Barotropic Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Model (SANBAR), [9] was introduced in 1970 and was used by the National Hurricane Center as part of its operational track guidance through 1989. It was based on a simplified set of atmospheric dynamical equations (the equivalent ...
Tropical cyclone forecasting is the science of forecasting where a tropical cyclone's center, and its effects, are expected to be at some point in the future. There are several elements to tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, tornado, and seasonal forecasting.
It comprises a spectral atmospheric model with a terrain-following vertical coordinate system coupled to a 4D-Var data assimilation system.In 1997 the IFS became the first operational forecasting system to use 4D-Var. [2] Both ECMWF and Météo-France use the IFS to make operational weather forecasts, but using a different configuration and resolution (the Météo-France configuration is ...
Hurricane Irma's path was such that its impact was both far-reaching and devastating, with landfalls in Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Martin, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the United States, all at major hurricane intensity. Furthermore, the size of the storm system meant that destruction was prevalent even in territories well removed from landfall ...
A couple months later, a European AI model called AIFS successfully predicted the path of Francine as it hit the Gulf Coast. “The consistency was incredible,” Lanza says. “The consistency ...
The final storm being tracked by the hurricane center is Tropical Storm Kirk, which formed Monday morning in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The hurricane center said Monday morning that a "general ...
Irma underwent rapid intensification after reaching hurricane status, becoming a Category 2 hurricane at 18:00 UTC and then a Category 3 hurricane, becoming a major hurricane – around 00:00 UTC on September 1. In a 48-hour period, the hurricane's intensity had increased by 65 mph (105 km/h), a feat achieved only by about 1-in-30 Atlantic ...