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For example, in a model that tries to predict house prices based on size and location, ACE helps by figuring out if, for instance, transforming the size (maybe taking the square root or logarithm) or the location (perhaps grouping locations into categories) would make the relationship easier to model and lead to better predictions.
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Heuer outlines the ACH process in considerable depth in his book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. [1] It consists of the following steps: Hypothesis – The first step of the process is to identify all potential hypotheses, preferably using a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities.
It is used in theories of the modularity of mind and the closely related society of mind theory and was developed by Jerry Fodor. It became better known throughout cognitive psychology by means of his book, The Modularity of Mind (1983). The nine aspects he lists that make up a mental module are domain specificity, mandatory operation, limited ...
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The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is The Good Judgment Project from Philip E. Tetlock et al. [ 12 ] (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament) [ 7 ] ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES).