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Impact conditions such as asteroid size and speed, but also density and impact angle determine the kinetic energy released in an impact event. The more energy is released, the more damage is likely to occur on the ground due to the environmental effects triggered by the impact.
Asteroid impact prediction is the prediction of the dates and times of asteroids impacting Earth, along with the locations and severities of the impacts. The process of impact prediction follows three major steps: Discovery of an asteroid and initial assessment of its orbit which is generally based on a short observation arc of less than 2 weeks.
This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024, all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors.
2024 RW 1, previously known under its provisional designation CAQTDL2, [5] was a 1-meter-sized asteroid or meteoroid that struck the Earth's atmosphere and burned up harmlessly on September 5, 2024, at around 12:40 a.m. PHT (September 4, 16:40 UTC) above the western Pacific Ocean near Cagayan, Philippines.
Kinetic impactors such as the one used by the Double Asteroid Redirection Test – its impact with the asteroid moon Dimorphos photographed above – are one of many methods designed to alter the trajectory of an asteroid to prevent its potential collision with Earth. Damage caused by the Tunguska event. The object was 50-80 meters (150-240 ...
The Chicxulub impact has been widely considered the most likely cause for the Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction, with some scholars linking other impacts like the Popigai impact in Russia and the Chesapeake Bay impact to later extinction events, though the causal relationship has been questioned.
The possible impact site is located at the edge of the Bellingshausen Sea (part of the Southern Ocean). The Eltanin impact is thought to be an asteroid impact in the eastern part of the South Pacific Ocean that occurred around the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary approximately 2.51 ± 0.07 million years ago. [1]
The soonest virtual impactor of an asteroid larger than 50 meters in diameter with a better than 1:1-million chance of impact is 2022 PX 1 on 11 August 2040 with a 1: 330 000 chance of impact. [8] It is estimated to be 120-meters in diameter, has a short observation arc of 3.1-days, and is expected to be 1.78 AU (266 million km ) from Earth on ...