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Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight maintains a list of pollsters who conduct surveys in U.S. political elections and assigns each pollster a rating based on its methodology and historical accuracy. [9] Silver also lists the number of polls analyzed for each pollster. [9] Cygnal [10] [11] [12] Elway Research; Emerson College Polling [13]
The Emerson poll estimated Trump was ahead by 10 points. This year’s campaign produced more than a few notably off-target predictions based on intimations rather than survey data.
The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. Biden would win the national popular vote by 4.4 ...
Emerson and Lovito have suggested that the keys are no more accurate than the polls, noting that "[i]f you took whoever led in the polls from every election from 1984 to 2020 and predicted they would win, you would have predicted 9/10 elections correctly, which is the exact same record Lichtman can claim." [11]
The Emerson College poll also surveyed a hypothetical 2028 field. For Republicans, Vice President-elect JD Vance was the top dog with 30%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (5%), entrepreneur ...
Co/efficient, a Republican polling company co-founded by a general consultant to the Cameron campaign, dug into alleged demographic deficiencies of the Fox56/Emerson poll.
[1] [2] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton, but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts. Retrospective analyses differ as to why the polls and commentators interpreting them were unable to correctly forecast the result of the ...
The final poll of swing states from Emerson College Polling/The Hill shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a tight race for the White House.