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The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...
See live updates of California election results from the 2024 election, including Senate and House races, state elections and ballot initiatives.
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Kamala Harris Democratic Donald Trump Republican Others/ Undecided [a]Margin 270toWin [1]: through November 4, 2024
In the election Harris indeed carried California by just over 20 points with more than 9.2 million votes. Nevertheless, her margin was noticeably smaller than Joe Biden's 29-point win in 2020, a trend observed in other blue states such as Massachusetts, New York and Illinois, all of which witnessed a decline in Democratic voter turnout. [4]
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Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...
Forecasts by 538 and Decision Desk HQ/The Hill have been suspended since Biden withdrew from the race, but Silver Bulletin’s model on Aug. 18 suggests Harris has a 53.5% chance of winning in ...