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Scenario planning is as much art as science, and prone to a variety of traps (both in process and content) as enumerated by Paul J. H. Schoemaker. [14] More recently scenario planning has been discussed as a tool to improve the strategic agility, by cognitively preparing not only multiple scenarios but also multiple consistent strategies. [10]
[4] [5] Jonathan Rosenhead and colleagues were among the first to lay out a systematic decision framework for robust decisions, in their 1989 book Rational Analysis for a Problematic World. [6] Similar themes have emerged from the literatures on scenario planning, robust control, imprecise probability, and info-gap decision theory and methods.
Academics and practicing managers have developed numerous models and frameworks to assist in strategic decision-making in the context of complex environments and competitive dynamics. [6] Strategic management is not static in nature; the models can include a feedback loop to monitor execution and to inform the next round of planning. [7] [8] [9]
Strategic planning is an organization's process of defining its strategy or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to attain strategic goals.. Furthermore, it may also extend to control mechanisms for guiding the implementation of the strategy.
This framework enables the individual setting the goal to have a precise understanding of the expected outcomes, while the evaluator has concrete criteria for assessment. The SMART acronym is linked to Peter Drucker's management by objectives (MBO) concept, illustrating its foundational role in strategic planning and performance management. [4]
The scenario approach or scenario optimization approach is a technique for obtaining solutions to robust optimization and chance-constrained optimization problems based on a sample of the constraints. It also relates to inductive reasoning in modeling and decision-making.