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In June 2023, the New York Fed’s model — which calculates recession probabilities based on the yield spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and three-month bills — estimated a 70% chance of a ...
In an August 2024 report, J.P. Morgan analysts revealed that there's a 35% chance the U.S. will fall into a recession by the end of this year. The probability of a recession by the end of 2025 ...
The U.S. economy is on solid footing, according to a new survey from the nation’s leading economists, who are also keeping a close eye President Trump's incoming policies.
Given high levels of inflation and rising rates — which has sent the 30-year mortgage ballooning to 5% — many economists are warning of an impending recession by sometime in 2023.
Typically, a recession is defined by a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months, the NBER says. But the U.S. economy is still chugging along, with second-quarter GDP growing ...
The COVID-19 recession was a global economic recession caused by COVID-19 lockdowns. The recession began in most countries in February 2020. After a year of global economic slowdown that saw stagnation of economic growth and consumer activity, the COVID-19 lockdowns and other precautions taken in early 2020 drove the global economy into crisis.
Last year's consensus was that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession, but that didn't happen. This year's consensus is that we'll have a soft landing, in which the economy slows but won't ...
Income growth will continue to cool, savings will fall and debt will rise, and eventually the US consumer will have to pull back. A brief recession is the most likely outcome, write Dana Peterson ...