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French curve extrapolation is a method suitable for any distribution that has a tendency to be exponential, but with accelerating or decelerating factors. [3] This method has been used successfully in providing forecast projections of the growth of HIV/AIDS in the UK since 1987 and variant CJD in the UK for a number of years.
The short term forecast is as old as weather forecasting itself. During the nineteenth century, the first modern meteorologists were using extrapolation methods for predicting the movement of low pressure systems and anticyclones on surface maps. The researchers subsequently applied the laws of fluid dynamics to the atmosphere and developed the ...
Short term forecasting seems quite simple; it becomes more complex when the trend is extrapolated further into the future, as the number of dynamic forces that can change direction of the trend increases. This form of simple trend extrapolation helps to direct attention towards the forces, which can change the projected pattern.
Forecasting can be described as predicting what the future will look like, whereas planning predicts what the future should look like. [6] There is no single right forecasting method to use. Selection of a method should be based on your objectives and your conditions (data etc.). [9] A good way to find a method is by visiting a selection tree.
The Delphi method or Delphi technique (/ ˈ d ɛ l f aɪ / DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts.
Commonly adopted methods and tools of technology forecasting include the Moore's law, [9] Write's law and Goddard law, [10] which generate quantitative assessments for technology progress, the Delphi method, forecast by analogy, growth curves, extrapolation and horizon scanning.
Time series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is the use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values.
Extrapolation – Extrapolation is the usual method of forecasting. It is based on the assumption that future events will continue to develop along the same boundaries as previous events i.e. the past is a good predictor of the future.