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The day 1 outlook for December 28, issued by the Storm Prediction Center. A moderate (4/5) risk was issued by the Storm Prediction Center for December 28, as a shortwave trough was expected to move through Texas and Louisiana, with the risk area also extending into Mississippi and extreme south bringing the expectation of large hail and multiple tornadoes, some being strong (EF2+).
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In late 2023, American meteorologist and tornado expert Thomas P. Grazulis created the Outbreak Intensity Score (OIS) as a way to rank tornado outbreaks. [1] [2] For the score, only significant tornadoes are counted: F2/EF2 tornadoes receive 2 points each, F3/EF3 tornadoes receive 5 points each, F4/EF4 tornadoes receive 10 points each, and F5/EF5 tornadoes receive 15 points each. [1]
Severe weather means there is a potential for hail, damaging winds, more than an inch of rain and a shot at an isolated tornado. The NWS issued a Tornado Watch until 7 p.m. for 21 counties.
Long-track tornadoes of greater than EF2 intensity will be likely in some areas. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph will also be possible." (8 p.m. ET) Roof Ripped Off Texas Elementary School
Intensity cannot be determined due to a lack of information. This rating applies to tornadoes that traverse areas with no damage indicators, cause damage in an area that cannot be accessed by a survey, or cause damage that cannot be differentiated from that of another tornado. [4] N/A EF0: 65–85: 105–137 52.82% Minor damage.
Over 30 tornadoes have been confirmed from December 26-29 across the South. That includes four strong tornadoes, of at least EF-2 strength. Two were rated EF-3 in southeastern Texas.
[10] [11] As the tornado continued to the northeast, the presence of a large debris ball on radar prompted the issuance of a tornado emergency for Robinson as the tornado approached the south side of town. [12] Track map of the tornado as it moved through the eastern fringes of Robinson and areas just south of Gordon. [note 1]