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In June 2023, the New York Fed’s model — which calculates recession probabilities based on the yield spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and three-month bills — estimated a 70% chance of a ...
If the rise of artificial intelligence characterized the stock market surges of 2023 and 2024, then 2025 will be the year the technology sticks around for good.
In an August 2024 report, J.P. Morgan analysts revealed that there's a 35% chance the U.S. will fall into a recession by the end of this year. The probability of a recession by the end of 2025 ...
“Real GDP is likely to grow at a healthy 2% rate in 2025 with unemployment stable in the relatively low 4.2%-4.3% range,” said David Kass, clinical professor of finance at the University of ...
The U.S. economy entered 2025 with a steady hand, according to the National Association of Business Economics, a group of the nation’s leading economists, with the chance of a prolonged slowdown ...
Things might change (for the worse) in 2025, though. The Federal Reserve puts the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 42%. That's not an overwhelmingly high percentage, but it's ...
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Jim Paulsen says he expects a 10%-15% stock market correction next year. The market veteran thinks investors are overlooking the risk of an economic slowdown.