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Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
The presidential historian has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over former President Donald Trump. ... President betting odds from Smarkets, 538 ...
According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, won the Democratic primaries.
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...
As such, it was generally forecasted that the winner of the state was highly likely to win the entire election. According to statistician Nate Silver, the state's winner was estimated to have a 90% chance of winning the presidency. [3] Major news organizations marked it as a tossup in the lead-up to the election. [4]
Looking at 538’s forecast, the most likely tipping-point state across all scenarios for the 2024 election is Pennsylvania. In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning ...
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...