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Probabilistic forecasting summarizes what is known about, or opinions about, future events. In contrast to single-valued forecasts (such as forecasting that the maximum temperature at a given site on a given day will be 23 degrees Celsius, or that the result in a given football match will be a no-score draw), probabilistic forecasts assign a probability to each of a number of different ...
Alternatively, the probabilistic method can also be used to guarantee the existence of a desired element in a sample space with a value that is greater than or equal to the calculated expected value, since the non-existence of such element would imply every element in the sample space is less than the expected value, a contradiction.
In mathematical terms, a statistical model is a pair (,), where is the set of possible observations, i.e. the sample space, and is a set of probability distributions on . [3] The set P {\displaystyle {\mathcal {P}}} represents all of the models that are considered possible.
Example of a directed acyclic graph on four vertices. If the network structure of the model is a directed acyclic graph, the model represents a factorization of the joint probability of all random variables. More precisely, if the events are , …, then the joint probability satisfies
A discriminative model is a model of the conditional probability (=) of the target Y, given an observation x. It can be used to "discriminate" the value of the target variable Y, given an observation x. [3] Classifiers computed without using a probability model are also referred to loosely as "discriminative".
The probability of observing a 0 or 1 in any one case is treated as depending on one or more explanatory variables. For the "linear probability model", this relationship is a particularly simple one, and allows the model to be fitted by linear regression.
The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution, also known as the fatigue life distribution, is a probability distribution used extensively in reliability applications to model failure times. The chi distribution. The noncentral chi distribution; The chi-squared distribution, which is the sum of the squares of n independent Gaussian random variables.
Bayesian networks are ideal for taking an event that occurred and predicting the likelihood that any one of several possible known causes was the contributing factor. For example, a Bayesian network could represent the probabilistic relationships between diseases and symptoms.