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One of the first modern electronic prediction markets is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets, introduced during the 1988 US presidential election. [8]Around 1990 at Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson used the first known corporate prediction market.
In a comparison of prediction success published by Bloomberg News after the primary season was completed, FiveThirtyEight 's prediction success tied for the highest percentage of correct primary poll winners, at 92%; but it lagged behind PredictWise in predicting a larger set of primaries. [68]
Bookmakers think one presidential hopeful had a great 'convention bump' if his or her new odds are anything to go by.
Donald Trump has hit his highest chance of winning the 2016 election, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver.
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Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by Trump/Pence and blue denotes those won by Clinton/Kaine. Numbers indicate electoral votes cast by each state and the District of Columbia.
The poll, taken between April and early July, surveyed nearly 60,000 registered voters in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
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