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The latest polling analysis from 538 gave Trump a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election versus 47 out of 100 for Kamala Harris. It also gave Republicans an 87-in-100 chance of taking the Senate ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
FiveThirtyEight is the 2008 Weblog Award Winner for "Best Political Coverage". [98] FiveThirtyEight earned a 2009 "Bloggie" as the "Best Weblog about Politics" in the 9th Annual Weblog Awards. [99] In April 2009, Silver was named "Blogger of the Year" in the 6th Annual Opinion Awards of The Week, for his work on FiveThirtyEight. [100]
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election.The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, won the Democratic primaries.
Possible Electoral Vote Counts. When you vote, you don’t elect the president: You tell your state’s electoral-college electors how to vote. In most states, all electors vote with the state’s popular opinion.
Election savant Nate Silver has put his marker down and revealed his “gut says” that former President Donald Trump will emerge victorious in the Nov. 5 election, while warning that polling ...