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Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
See live updates of California election results from the 2024 election, including Senate and House races, state elections and ballot initiatives.
ABC News project 538: This poll currently shows Harris with a 47.9% to 47.0% edge over Trump. 270towin : Showing a composite of the latest national polls , Harris currently leads Trump by 1.1%.
2024 Results: 48.3% 49.8%: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% <0.1% 0.4% ... Suffolk University/USA TODAY [139] August 25–28, 2024 1,000 (LV) ... 538: through August 22, 2024 August 23 ...
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...
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In the leadup to Biden's withdrawal, 538 was the only professional election forecaster to give Biden majority odds of winning the 2024 election. [93] Silver criticized Morris's model, describing it as at best ignoring the polls and giving Biden positive odds merely due to his incumbency , and at worst as being "buggy".
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...