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The confidence interval can be expressed in terms of probability with respect to a single theoretical (yet to be realized) sample: "There is a 95% probability that the 95% confidence interval calculated from a given future sample will cover the true value of the population parameter."
In the social sciences, a result may be considered statistically significant if its confidence level is of the order of a two-sigma effect (95%), while in particle physics and astrophysics, there is a convention of requiring statistical significance of a five-sigma effect (99.99994% confidence) to qualify as a discovery.
For a confidence level, there is a corresponding confidence interval about the mean , that is, the interval [, +] within which values of should fall with probability . Precise values of z γ {\displaystyle z_{\gamma }} are given by the quantile function of the normal distribution (which the 68–95–99.7 rule approximates).
For instance, if estimating the effect of a drug on blood pressure with a 95% confidence interval that is six units wide, and the known standard deviation of blood pressure in the population is 15, the required sample size would be =, which would be rounded up to 97, since sample sizes must be integers and must meet or exceed the calculated ...
In contrast, it is worth noting that other confidence interval may have coverage levels that are lower than the nominal , i.e., the normal approximation (or "standard") interval, Wilson interval, [8] Agresti–Coull interval, [13] etc., with a nominal coverage of 95% may in fact cover less than 95%, [4] even for large sample sizes.
In statistics, Welch's t-test, or unequal variances t-test, is a two-sample location test which is used to test the (null) hypothesis that two populations have equal means. It is named for its creator, Bernard Lewis Welch , and is an adaptation of Student's t -test , [ 1 ] and is more reliable when the two samples have unequal variances and ...
The rule can then be derived [2] either from the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution, or from the formula (1−p) n for the probability of zero events in the binomial distribution. In the latter case, the edge of the confidence interval is given by Pr(X = 0) = 0.05 and hence (1−p) n = .05 so n ln(1–p) = ln .05 ≈ −2
Classically, a confidence distribution is defined by inverting the upper limits of a series of lower-sided confidence intervals. [15] [16] [page needed] In particular, For every α in (0, 1), let (−∞, ξ n (α)] be a 100α% lower-side confidence interval for θ, where ξ n (α) = ξ n (X n,α) is continuous and increasing in α for each sample X n.