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Here's how the 4% rule works in practice: If you have $1 million in retirement savings, you'd withdraw $40,000 in your first year (or 4% of $1 million). In subsequent years, you'd adjust this ...
The rule was later further popularized by the Trinity study (1998), based on the same data and similar analysis. Bengen later called this rate the SAFEMAX rate, for "the maximum 'safe' historical withdrawal rate", [3] and later revised it to 4.5% if tax-free and 4.1% for taxable. [4] In low-inflation economic environments the rate may even be ...
Other authors have made similar studies using backtested and simulated market data, and other withdrawal systems and strategies. The Trinity study and others of its kind have been sharply criticized, e.g., by Scott et al. (2008), [2] not on their data or conclusions, but on what they see as an irrational and economically inefficient withdrawal strategy: "This rule and its variants finance a ...
An occasional variant used in the 1990s was the Double Lehman formula, which doubled the percentages but skipped odd numbers. 10% of the first $1 million, plus; 8% of the second $1 million, plus; 6% of the third $1 million, plus; 4% of the fourth $1 million, plus; 2% of everything above $4 million.
The net benefit of the traditional account is the sum of (1) the same benefit as from the Roth account from the permanently tax-free profits on after-tax saving, (2) a possible bonus (or penalty) from withdrawals at tax rates lower (or higher) than at contribution, and (3) the impact on qualification for other income-tested programs from ...
A formula that is accurate to within a few percent can be found by noting that for typical U.S. note rates (< % and terms =10–30 years), the monthly note rate is small compared to 1. r << 1 {\displaystyle r<<1} so that the ln ( 1 + r ) ≈ r {\displaystyle \ln(1+r)\approx r} which yields the simplification:
The formula above can be used for more than calculating the doubling time. If one wants to know the tripling time, for example, replace the constant 2 in the numerator with 3. As another example, if one wants to know the number of periods it takes for the initial value to rise by 50%, replace the constant 2 with 1.5.
On an annual basis, the formula outperformed the market three out of four years but underperformed about 16% of two-year periods and 5% of three-year periods. Greenblatt asserts the formula out-performed market averages 100% of the time for any period longer than three years and worked best over three to five years or more.