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Load forecasting (electric load forecasting, electric demand forecasting). Although "load" is an ambiguous term, in load forecasting the "load" usually means demand (in kW) or energy (in kWh) and since the magnitude of power and energy is the same for hourly data, usually no distinction is made between demand and energy. [16]
generation is distributed across a vast geographical area (e.g., a country), and therefore the response of the electrical grid, itself a highly complex system, has to be taken into account: even if the production levels of all units are known, checking whether the load can be sustained and what the losses are requires highly complex power flow ...
Distribution Load Forecasting (DLF) provides a structured interface for creating, managing and analyzing load forecasts. Accurate models for electric power load forecasting are essential to the operation and planning of a utility company. DLF helps an electric utility to make important decisions including decisions on purchasing electric power ...
An optimal power-flow study establishes the best combination of generating plant output to meet a given load requirement, so as to minimize production cost while maintaining desired stability and reliability; such models may be updated in near-real-time to allow guidance to system operators on the lowest-cost way to achieve economic dispatch.
Medium-term forecasting, from a few days to a few months ahead, is generally preferred for balance sheet calculations, risk management and derivatives pricing. In many cases, especially in electricity price forecasting, evaluation is based not on the actual point forecasts, but on the distributions of prices over certain future time periods.
Since electrical energy is a form of energy that cannot be effectively stored in bulk, it must be generated, distributed, and consumed immediately. When the load on a system approaches the maximum generating capacity, network operators must either find additional supplies of energy or find ways to curtail the load, hence load management.
Predictive and forecasting methods may be used to prepare the network for anticipated conditions. This may include delaying load from being connected if an increase in power generation (say from wind turbines, solar power, or tidal generators) is expected in the near future.
Capacity forecasting seems to be the new promise of DLR, mixing on-line sensors with reliable weather data forecast, up to two days ahead. [24] In this field, significant social welfare benefits are expected inasmuch as capacity forecasts favour converging zonal prices and a decrease in congestion rents.