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Hindsight bias may lead to overconfidence and malpractice in regards to physicians. Hindsight bias and overconfidence is often attributed to the number of years of experience the physician has. After a procedure, physicians may have a "knew it the whole time" attitude, when in reality they may not have known it.
The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. [1] [2] Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities.
Illustration for John Milton's Paradise Lost by Gustave Doré (1866). The spiritual descent of Lucifer into Satan, one of the most famous examples of hubris.. Hubris (/ ˈ h juː b r ɪ s /; from Ancient Greek ὕβρις (húbris) 'pride, insolence, outrage'), or less frequently hybris (/ ˈ h aɪ b r ɪ s /), [1] describes a personality quality of extreme or excessive pride [2] or dangerous ...
The curse of knowledge, also called the curse of expertise [1] or expert's curse, is a cognitive bias that occurs when a person who has specialized knowledge assumes that others share in that knowledge. [2] For example, in a classroom setting, teachers may have difficulty if they cannot put themselves in the position of the student.
Some researchers include a metacognitive component in their definition. In this view, the Dunning–Kruger effect is the thesis that those who are incompetent in a given area tend to be ignorant of their incompetence, i.e., they lack the metacognitive ability to become aware of their incompetence.
Before psychological research on confirmation bias, the phenomenon had been observed throughout history. Beginning with the Greek historian Thucydides ( c. 460 BC – c. 395 BC ), who wrote of misguided reason in The Peloponnesian War ; "... for it is a habit of mankind to entrust to careless hope what they long for, and to use sovereign reason ...
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Victory disease occurs in military history when complacency or arrogance, brought on by a victory or a series of victories, makes an engagement end disastrously for a commander and his forces. [1] A commander may disdain the enemy, and believe his own invincibility, leading his troops to disaster.