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Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: 'after this, therefore because of this') is an informal fallacy that states "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X." It is a fallacy in which an event is presumed to have been caused by a closely preceding event merely on the grounds of temporal succession.
The flaw is failing to account for natural fluctuations. It is frequently a special kind of post hoc fallacy. Gambler's fallacy – the incorrect belief that separate, independent events can affect the likelihood of another random event. If a fair coin lands on heads 10 times in a row, the belief that it is "due to the number of times it had ...
This fallacy is also known by the Latin phrase cum hoc ergo propter hoc ('with this, therefore because of this'). This differs from the fallacy known as post hoc ergo propter hoc ("after this, therefore because of this"), in which an event following another is seen as a necessary consequence of the former event, and from conflation , the errant ...
Post hoc (sometimes written as post-hoc) is a Latin phrase, meaning "after this" or "after the event". Post hoc may refer to: Post hoc analysis or post hoc test, statistical analyses that were not specified before the data were seen; Post hoc theorizing, generating hypotheses based on data already observed
In a scientific study, post hoc analysis (from Latin post hoc, "after this") consists of statistical analyses that were specified after the data were seen. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] They are usually used to uncover specific differences between three or more group means when an analysis of variance (ANOVA) test is significant. [ 3 ]
Identifying a false cause and effect (post hoc ergo propter hoc) Asserting that everyone agrees (argumentum ad populum, bandwagoning) Creating a false dilemma (either-or fallacy) in which the situation is oversimplified, also called false dichotomy; Selectively using facts (card stacking)
Since the question of "true causality" is deeply philosophical, and because of the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy of assuming that one thing preceding another can be used as a proof of causation, econometricians assert that the Granger test finds only "predictive causality". [2]
Propter hoc may refer to: Cum hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "with this, therefore because of this"), an informal fallacy suggesting that when two events happen together, one must cause the other Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: "after this, therefore because of this"), an informal fallacy suggesting that when an event follows another event, the ...