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An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election), is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or ...
Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections. [1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3]
George Gallup's American Institute of Public Opinion achieved national recognition by correctly predicting the result to within 1.4%, using a much smaller sample size of just 50,000. [5] Gallup's final poll before the election predicted that Roosevelt would receive 55.7% of the popular vote and 481 electoral votes: the official tally saw ...
As I note in Lost in a Gallup, my book about polling failure in presidential elections, pre-election polls are central to how journalists, and Americans at large, understand the dynamics of ...
Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) in the United Kingdom after R. B. McCallum, a friend of Hardie's, requested a word to describe the study of elections. Its first documented usage in ...
Cantril, Hadley and Mildred Strunk, eds. Public Opinion, 1935–1946 Archived July 28, 2012, at the Wayback Machine, massive compilation of many public opinion polls from US, UK, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere. online; Converse, Jean M. Survey Research in the United States: Roots and Emergence 1890–1960 (1987), the standard history
The unfortunate reality is that polls that show the most dramatic numbers in terms of candidates’ winning and losing often draw the most media response. It is therefore especially critical to subject such polls to rigorous examination. Public polls differ on whether they release their likely voter screens, sample frames,
The Huffington Post has partnered with YouGov to conduct daily public opinion polls on the issues of the day, and provide a polling widget allowing readers of the online news site to compare their views to those of the nation as a whole. Show methodology Join YouGov Send feedback