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The odds slightly narrowed in the few days before, but by the time the first major polls closed at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday evening, the markets showed around 60% odds for Trump.
Investors in prediction markets can buy either a Yes or No contract for each of the candidates. The price varies based on the market’s belief in each candidate’s likelihood to win the election.
It’s a solid win, but in the lower half of US presidential elections. It was a better showing than either his or Joe Biden’s 306 electoral votes in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
State or district EV PVI [1] 2016 result 2020 result Cook Oct 28, 2020 [2] Inside Elections Oct 28, 2020 [3] Sabato Nov 2, 2020 [4] Politico Nov 2, 2020 [5] Real Clear Politics
Solid R Solid R Very Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Arizona: 11 Nov 5 09:00 pm R+2: 49.4% D 0.31% Tossup Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Colorado: 10 Nov 5 09:00 pm D+4: 55.4% D 13.50% Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Lean D Likely D Solid D Safe D Florida: 30 Nov 5 08:00 pm R+3: 51.2% ...
The NFL playoff picture will soon be locked in, but teams still have an opening to make a statement. Here are our bold predictions for Week 17.
Solid R Likely R Likely R Lean R Crane Arizona 4: D+2: Greg Stanton: 56.1% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Stanton Arizona 6: R+3: Juan Ciscomani: 50.7% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tilt R Likely R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Ciscomani California 3: R+4: Kevin Kiley: 53.6% R Likely R Likely R ...
"Nothing has changed to change my prediction that I made on Sept. 5," Lichtman said, "in defiance of the polls." More: Presidential election polls 2024: Latest surveys on Harris vs. Trump with 6 ...
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