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The expected return (or expected gain) on a financial investment is the expected value of its return (of the profit on the investment). It is a measure of the center of the distribution of the random variable that is the return. [1] It is calculated by using the following formula: [] = = where
For the latter, various models have been developed, where the premium is (typically) calculated as a function of the asset's performance with reference to some macroeconomic variable – for example, the CAPM compares the asset's historical returns to the "overall market's"; see Capital asset pricing model § Asset-specific required return and ...
An example capital allocation line. As illustrated by the article, the slope dictates the amount of return that comes with a certain level of risk. Capital allocation line (CAL) is a graph created by investors to measure the risk of risky and risk-free assets. The graph displays the return to be made by taking on a certain level of risk.
Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
These equations show that the stock return is influenced by the market (beta), has a firm specific expected value (alpha) and firm-specific unexpected component (residual). Each stock's performance is in relation to the performance of a market index (such as the All Ordinaries). Security analysts often use the SIM for such functions as ...
is the expected inflation rate g {\displaystyle g} is the real growth rate in earnings (note that by adding real growth and inflation, this is basically identical to just adding nominal growth) Δ S {\displaystyle \Delta S} is the changes in shares outstanding (i.e. increases in shares outstanding decrease expected returns)
An estimation of the CAPM and the security market line (purple) for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 3 years for monthly data.. In finance, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is a model used to determine a theoretically appropriate required rate of return of an asset, to make decisions about adding assets to a well-diversified portfolio.
The rate of return on a portfolio can be calculated indirectly as the weighted average rate of return on the various assets within the portfolio. [3] The weights are proportional to the value of the assets within the portfolio, to take into account what portion of the portfolio each individual return represents in calculating the contribution of that asset to the return on the portfolio.