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  2. Overconfidence effect - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect

    If human confidence had perfect calibration, judgments with 100% confidence would be correct 100% of the time, 90% confidence correct 90% of the time, and so on for the other levels of confidence. By contrast, the key finding is that confidence exceeds accuracy so long as the subject is answering hard questions about an unfamiliar topic.

  3. Strategic voting - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_voting

    In 2000, 2016, and 2024, a significant number of voters in the Presidential elections opted to use vote swapping to increase Democratic turnout in swing states and third-party turnout in safe states. [58] One high-profile example of strategic voting was the 2002 California gubernatorial election.

  4. False precision - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_precision

    False precision (also called overprecision, fake precision, misplaced precision, and spurious precision) occurs when numerical data are presented in a manner that implies better precision than is justified; since precision is a limit to accuracy (in the ISO definition of accuracy), this often leads to overconfidence in the accuracy, named precision bias.

  5. Valence issue - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valence_issue

    However, when a parties valence issue history is not clear, for instance, when there is an election with a new or challenger party, then the voter is likely to make a decision based on position issues. [30] A major crisis or political event is another way voters formulate lasting impressions about valence issues. [31]

  6. Did third-party candidates cost Hillary Clinton the election?

    www.aol.com/news/2016-11-10-did-third-party...

    The Libertarian and Green Party candidates got over 223,000 votes. Stein alone received nearly 31,000 votes in Wisconsin, a state Clinton lost by just over 27,000 votes.

  7. Political realignment - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_realignment

    A central component of realignment is the change in behavior of voting groups. Realignment within the context of voting relates to the switching of voter preferences from one party to another. This is in contrast to dealignment where a voter group abandons a party due to voter apathy or to become independent. In the US and Australia, as the ...

  8. Landslide victory - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landslide_victory

    A landslide victory in the elections of St. Vincent and the Grenadines involves a large swing from one party to another as well as one party winning a large majority in parliament. Landslide victories have usually occurred after a long period of government from one particular party and a change in the popular mood.

  9. Duverger's law - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger's_law

    A two-party system is most common under plurality voting.Voters typically cast one vote per race. Maurice Duverger argued there were two main mechanisms by which plurality voting systems lead to fewer major parties: (i) small parties are disincentivized to form because they have great difficulty winning seats or representation, and (ii) voters are wary of voting for a smaller party whose ...