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HAFS is a major step forward, combining the strengths of global and hurricane-specific modeling, and HAFS-B was the top performer in 2023 at the three- to five-day forecast range.
The HWRF computer model is the operational backbone for hurricane track and intensity forecasts by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). [2] The model will use data from satellite observations, buoys, and reconnaissance aircraft, making it able to access more meteorological data than any other hurricane model before it. [2]
Tropical cyclone forecasting is the science of forecasting where a tropical cyclone's center, and its effects, are expected to be at some point in the future. There are several elements to tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, tornado, and seasonal forecasting.
In addition, at 1700 UTC during the hurricane season, a medium-range coordination call takes place between the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center to coordinate tropical cyclone placement on the medium-range pressure forecasts 6 and 7 days into the future for the northeast Pacific and Atlantic basins. Every ...
It is expected to supplant current forecast models by the end of the 2024 hurricane season. ... The reasons for that kind of long-term improvement are many. ... The size of the hurricane forecast ...
Recent upgrades to some models have resulted in improved forecast performance over the last couple seasons, so there are some key changes in the 2022 hurricane model power rankings below.
Statistical-dynamical models were used from the 1970s into the 1990s. Early models use data from previous model runs while late models produce output after the official hurricane forecast has been sent. The use of consensus, ensemble, and superensemble forecasts lowers errors more than any individual forecast model. Both consensus and ...
Computer models also show more activity in the Atlantic in September: "Long-range models are becoming increasingly confident that the deep Atlantic tropics will soon spawn a system worth tracking ...