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Example [ edit ] If both x {\displaystyle x} and y {\displaystyle y} vectors have cardinal (interval or rational) scale, then without knowing x {\displaystyle x} , the best predictor for an unknown y {\displaystyle y} would be y ¯ {\displaystyle {\bar {y}}} , the arithmetic mean of the y {\displaystyle y} -data.
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That is, a prediction of 80% that correctly proved true would receive a score of ln(0.8) = −0.22. This same prediction also assigns 20% likelihood to the opposite case, and so if the prediction proves false, it would receive a score based on the 20%: ln(0.2) = −1.6. The goal of a forecaster is to maximize the score and for the score to be ...
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The method considers various factors that may contribute to human errors and provides a systematic approach for evaluating and quantifying these probabilities. Here are the key steps involved in the THERP method: Task Analysis: The first step is to break down the overall task into discrete steps or stages. Each stage represents a specific ...