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For free market purists, the success of betting sites like Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt isn’t surprising at all. The basic theory behind prediction markets is that a lot of people with money ...
Meanwhile, Polymarket shows Trump has a 54% chance of winning the presidential election with Harris trailing behind at just a 45.3% chance. PredictIt’s markets are a little closer.
Her odds of becoming the next president have jumped from 18% to 29% on Polymarket, and up from 27% to 40% on PredictIt. FiveThirtyEight’s approval poll show a 50% disapproval rating for the vice ...
Polymarket's site says more than $3.6 billion was spent betting on the race, though users in the US weren't legally allowed to participate. "Nothing is as salient as the presidential election ...
Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider. There's over $606 million wagered on the 2024 election on Polymarket, favoring a ...
The central question of whether Harris or former President Donald Trump would win the presidential election saw $3.2 billion Polymarket bets as of Election Day. ... For example, in late July after ...
Polymarket odds offer a useful gauge for predicting the upcoming election, but there are significant caveats. Real-time prediction markets can react faster than polls, making them a key part of ...
Polymarket did not respond to Fortune’s request for an interview. That isn’t to say prediction markets are always right. In 2016, PredictIt bettors notched Hillary Clinton at an 80% chance of ...