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Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers [ citation needed ] [ dubious – discuss ] , who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.
Paul the Octopus (26 January 2008 [1] – 26 October 2010) was a common octopus who predicted the results of international association football matches. Accurate predictions in the 2010 World Cup brought him worldwide attention as an animal oracle.
For example, if one player takes team A and the other takes team B and each wager $110 to win $100, it doesn't matter what team wins; the casino makes money. They take $100 of the $110 from the losing bet and pay the winner, keeping the extra $10 for themselves. This is the house edge.
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In a 3-horse race, for example, the true probabilities of each of the horses winning based on their relative abilities may be 50%, 40% and 10%. The total of these three percentages is 100%, thus representing a fair 'book'. The true odds against winning for each of the three horses are 1–1, 3–2 and 9–1, respectively.
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For example, if a team's season record is 30 wins and 20 losses, the winning percentage would be 60% or 0.600: % = % If a team's season record is 30–15–5 (i.e. it has won thirty games, lost fifteen and tied five times), and if the five tie games are counted as 2 1 ⁄ 2 wins, then the team has an adjusted record of 32 1 ⁄ 2 wins, resulting in a 65% or .650 winning percentage for the ...