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An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
Trackwise, the GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the GFDL, UKMET with quality control applied to the cyclone tracker, United States Navy NOGAPS, and GFS models. The version of the GUNA corrected for model biases is known as the CGUN. The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the Hurricane WRF model.
The main American global forecast model, the GFS underwent an upgrade several years ago that improved its reliability for hurricane forecasts. The GFS and GFS Ensembles have struggled in the last ...
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season saw an above-average amount of storms and was very active in terms of ACE. The season officially began on June 1, and officialy ended on November 30. The season officially began on June 1, and officialy ended on November 30.
Of those 17 storms, 11 were hurricanes, including the catastrophic Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30, though storms occasionally form in December.
The GFS was the most skillful single track model for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season at all lead times, and its ensembles are much improved relative to previous iterations.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was a very active and extremely destructive Atlantic hurricane season, producing 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes; it was also the first since 2019 to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes.
The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Patty. There is another factor aiding in the potential tropical development.