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Roulette (named after the French word meaning "little wheel") is a casino game which was likely developed from the Italian game Biribi. In the game, a player may choose to place a bet on a single number, various groupings of numbers, the color red or black, whether the number is odd or even, or if the number is high or low.
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if an event (whose occurrences are independent and identically distributed) has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future (or vice versa).
As an example, consider a roulette wheel that has landed on red in three consecutive spins. An onlooker might apply the law of averages to conclude that on its next spin it is guaranteed (or at least is much more likely) to land on black. Of course, the wheel has no memory and its probabilities do not change according to past results.
Before estimating, the participants first observed a roulette wheel that was predetermined to stop on either 10 or 65. Participants whose wheel stopped on 10 guessed lower values (25% on average) than participants whose wheel stopped at 65 (45% on average). [3]
Roulette is a game of pure chance; no strategy can give players advantages, the outcome is determined purely by which numbered pocket a ball randomly falls into. A game of chance is in contrast with a game of skill. It is a game whose outcome is strongly influenced by some randomizing device.
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This page was last edited on 16 January 2007, at 07:47 (UTC).; Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License; additional terms may apply.