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For a different example, in decision theory, an agent making an optimal choice in the context of incomplete information is often assumed to maximize the expected value of their utility function. It is possible to construct an expected value equal to the probability of an event by taking the expectation of an indicator function that is one if ...
In probability theory, the conditional expectation, conditional expected value, or conditional mean of a random variable is its expected value evaluated with respect to the conditional probability distribution. If the random variable can take on only a finite number of values, the "conditions" are that the variable can only take on a subset of ...
The Cauchy distribution, an example of a distribution which does not have an expected value or a variance. In physics it is usually called a Lorentzian profile, and is associated with many processes, including resonance energy distribution, impact and natural spectral line broadening and quadratic stark line broadening.
The example above is a conditional probability case for the continuous uniform distribution: ... the expected value is = +, and the variance is = (). For ...
For example, the expected value of rolling a fair six-sided die is 3.5. The concept is, intuitively, a generalization of the weighted average of all possible outcomes of a particular procedure or experiment, and can be viewed as the arithmetic mean of a large number of independent realizations of the experiment.
In probability theory, a martingale is a sequence of random variables (i.e., a stochastic process) for which, at a particular time, the conditional expectation of the next value in the sequence is equal to the present value, regardless of all prior values. Stopped Brownian motion is an example of a martingale. It can model an even coin-toss ...
The proposition in probability theory known as the law of total expectation, [1] the law of iterated expectations [2] (LIE), Adam's law, [3] the tower rule, [4] and the smoothing theorem, [5] among other names, states that if is a random variable whose expected value is defined, and is any random variable on the same probability space, then
Cost := Value_per_minute_at_home * Time_I_leave_home + (If Time_I_leave_home < Time_from_home_to_gate Then Loss_if_miss_the_plane Else 0) The following graph displays the expected value taking uncertainty into account (the smooth blue curve) to the expected utility ignoring uncertainty, graphed as a function of the decision variable.