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In addition to head-to-head winning probability, a general formula can be applied to calculate head-to-head probability of outcomes such as batting average in baseball. [ 3 ] Sticking with our batting average example, let p B {\displaystyle p_{B}} be the batter 's batting average (probability of getting a hit), and let p P {\displaystyle p_{P ...
With the aid of Retrosheet, however, win probability added has become substantially easier to calculate. The win probability for a specific situation in baseball (including the inning, number of outs, men on base, and score) is obtained by first finding all the teams that have encountered this situation.
The art of estimating win probability involves choosing which pieces of context matter. Baseball win probability estimates often include whether a team is home or away, inning, number of outs, which bases are occupied, and the score difference. Because baseball proceeds batter by batter, each new batter introduces a discrete state.
In 2006, Professor Steven J. Miller provided a statistical derivation of the formula [9] under some assumptions about baseball games: if runs for each team follow a Weibull distribution and the runs scored and allowed per game are statistically independent, then the formula gives the probability of winning. [9]
Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game. New York: Copernicus Books, 2001. ISBN 0-387-98816-5. A book on new statistics for baseball. MLB Record Book by: MLB.com; Alan Schwarz, The Numbers Game: Baseball's Lifelong Fascination with Statistics (New York: St. Martin's, 2005). ISBN 0-312-32223-2.
Win Shares is a 2002 book about baseball written by Bill James and Jim Henzler. The book explains how to apply the concept of sabermetrics to assess the impact of player performance in a combination of several areas, including offensive, defensive, and pitching on their team's overall performance.
Extrapolated Runs (XR) is a baseball statistic invented by sabermetrician Jim Furtado to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team. XR measures essentially the same thing as Bill James' Runs Created, but it is a linear weights formula that assigns a run value to each event, rather than a multiplicative formula like James' creation.
Bill James' two books, The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (1985) and Win Shares (2002) have continued to advance the field of sabermetrics. [23] The work of his former assistant Rob Neyer, who later became a senior writer at ESPN.com and national baseball editor of SBNation, also contributed to popularizing sabermetrics since the mid ...