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On September 3, 2014, FiveThirtyEight introduced its forecasts for each of the 36 U.S. Senate elections being contested that year. [538 69] At that time, the Republican Party was given a 64 percent chance of holding a majority of the seats in the Senate after the election. However, Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high ...
The New York Times "FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus" commenced on August 25, 2010, with the publication of "New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats". [51] From that date the blog focused almost exclusively on forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives elections as well as ...
“We will publish an election forecast including the new presumptive Democratic nominee, when such nominee is announced.” Data journalist Nate Silver criticized FiveThirtyEight, the polling and ...
FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin each had Harris’s odds at 50%. ... But just because the final election odds were forecast as 50-50 between Trump and Harris, that doesn’t ...
FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast showed Slotkin “won” the seat 76 out of 100 times, while Rogers “won” the seat 24 out of 100 times. The curren Michigan U.S. Senate race remains too ...
State or district EV PVI [1] 2016 result 2020 result Cook Oct 28, 2020 [2] Inside Elections Oct 28, 2020 [3] Sabato Nov 2, 2020 [4] Politico Nov 2, 2020 [5] Real Clear Politics
An updated FiveThirtyEight forecast shows a predicted "red wave" may be more of a ripple in Colorado when it comes to some of the biggest midterm races.
In March 2020, Morris and The Economist published a forecast for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the first major model predicting the election's outcome. [6] On August 1, 2020, his model gave Joe Biden an 87 percent chance of winning the election, drawing criticism from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight who said: "I am not necessarily ...