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On September 3, 2014, FiveThirtyEight introduced its forecasts for each of the 36 U.S. Senate elections being contested that year. [538 69] At that time, the Republican Party was given a 64 percent chance of holding a majority of the seats in the Senate after the election. However, Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high ...
Silver said his model is a “direct descendant” of the FiveThirtyEight election forecast. On Sunday, the election guru said that any momentum Trump had in October had “petered out in November.”
The New York Times "FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus" commenced on August 25, 2010, with the publication of "New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats". [51] From that date the blog focused almost exclusively on forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives elections as well as ...
FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin each had Harris’s odds at 50%. ... But just because the final election odds were forecast as 50-50 between Trump and Harris, that doesn’t ...
“We will publish an election forecast including the new presumptive Democratic nominee, when such nominee is announced.” Data journalist Nate Silver criticized FiveThirtyEight, the polling and ...
Forecasts from DDHQ and FiveThirtyEight give Trump a 54 percent and 51 percent chance of prevailing, respectively — barely different from a coin flip. There’s now a clear split between the Sun ...
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings: "tossup": no advantage
"In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast," Nate Silver, founder and former editor of ...