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Silver published the first iteration of his 2012 general election forecasts on June 7, 2012. According to the model, at that time Barack Obama was projected to win 291 electoral votes—21 more than the 270 required for a majority. Obama then had an estimated 61.8% chance of winning a majority. [77]
Nate Silver's The Signal and Noise is an excellent description of how prediction works. However, he purposefully leaves out the mathematics. In 2012, after his triumph of predicting the outcome of the last two presidential elections and selling his "fivethirtyeight" blog to the New York Times, Nate Silver accomplished what is almost impossible.
FiveThirtyEight rolled out its 2012 general election forecasting model on June 7, 2012. The model forecast both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote, with the latter being central to the exercise and involving a forecast of each state. In the initial forecast, Barack Obama was estimated to have a 61.8% chance of winning the electoral ...
His model has since predicted the outcome of the presidential race in 2012 and 2020. During the 2016 election, Silver’s model suggested a likely victory for Hillary Clinton but gave Trump around ...
Renowned election guru Nate Silver called the race for the White House a “pure toss-up” Sunday as he gave ex-President Donald Trump a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in his ...
Nate Silver is famous for his election predictions. ... predicting almost all of the 2008 election and repeating the feat in 2012. And when Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election, after Silver ...
The concept of tipping-point states was popularized by Nate Silver. "Tipping-point state" is used to analyze the median state of a United States presidential election.In a list of states ordered by decreasing margin of victory for the winning candidate, the tipping point state is the first state where the combined electoral votes of all states up to that point in the list give the winning ...
Pollster Nate Silver said in his forecast update Friday that “you’d probably rather have [Vice President] Harris’s hand to play.” Silver argued that the latest batch of national polls have ...