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The above-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Nov. 30, was characterized by record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a strong El Nino. The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023, which ranks fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950.
The 2023 North Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to produce (with 70% probability for each range) 14-21 named storms, of which 6-11 are expected to become hurricanes, and 2-5 of those are expected to become major hurricanes.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season began surprisingly early on January 16, when the National Hurricane Center issued a special tropical weather outlook for a low-pressure system north of Bermuda.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on Hurricane Rafael; Last advisory issued on Fourteen-E; Marine warnings are in effect for the Gulf of Mexico; Key Messages regarding Hurricane Rafael (en Español: Mensajes Claves) Local info on Rafael: Key West
NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater).
NOAA's outlook for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season indicates that a near-normal season is most likely (40% chance). The outlook also includes a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
Beginning in 2023, comprehensive versions of these reports will continue to be provided for all tropical cyclones in which coastal watches and warnings were in effect or direct fatalities were reported, and for other select storms with significant public or research interest (e.g., storms investigated via research field campaigns).
Leaders at the Department of Commerce and NOAA will discuss the expected number of storms for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, climate factors that will influence hurricane development and NOAA's readiness with new products and upgrades to enhance forecasting and operations.
The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS - NOAA’s next-generation hurricane model) is on-track to become operational during the 2023 hurricane season. NOAA’s Global Systems Laboratory collaborated with the NOAA National Hurricane Center to develop the future of storm surge watches and warnings in the