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Scenario planning is as much art as science, and prone to a variety of traps (both in process and content) as enumerated by Paul J. H. Schoemaker. [14] More recently scenario planning has been discussed as a tool to improve the strategic agility, by cognitively preparing not only multiple scenarios but also multiple consistent strategies. [10]
Instead, scenario planning is a technique in which multiple outcomes can be developed, their implications assessed, and their likeliness of occurrence evaluated. According to Pierre Wack, scenario planning is about insight, complexity, and subtlety, not about formal analysis and numbers. [62]
the "Background of Shared Obviousness", that is, the groupthink that exists within the organization around what the company is, what it is able to do and not able to do. Strategic assumptions are the equivalent in strategic planning to financial assumptions when doing financial projections, economic assumptions when making economic forecasts ...
Some leaders use relatively more elaborate tools such as shareholder value add (SVA), computer modeling, and scenario planning. Other leaders tend toward simplicity. Jack Welch described his toolset as a series of 5 questions with the answers ultimately leading up to what he called “the Big Aha.” [5] His 5 questions included:
Strategic thinking is a mental or thinking process applied by individuals and within organizations in the context of achieving a goal or set of goals.. When applied in an organizational strategic management process, strategic thinking involves the generation and application of unique business insights and opportunities intended to create competitive advantage for a firm or organization.
Management by objectives (MBO), also known as management by planning (MBP), was first popularized by Peter Drucker in his 1954 book The Practice of Management. [1] Management by objectives is the process of defining specific objectives within an organization that management can convey to organization members, then deciding how to achieve each objective in sequence.
Operational planning (OP) is the process of implementing strategic plans and objectives to reach specific goals. [1] In an Introduction to Management and Organizational Behavior, Barbara Carlin and Marina Sebastijanovic suggest that operational planning is one of the four basic types of planning involved in organizational management. [2] [a]
A decision rule is the GDSS protocol a group uses to choose among scenario planning alternatives. Gathering Involves all participants acknowledging each other's needs and opinions and tends towards a problem solving approach in which as many needs and opinions as possible can be satisfied.