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In the social sciences, a result may be considered statistically significant if its confidence level is of the order of a two-sigma effect (95%), while in particle physics and astrophysics, there is a convention of requiring statistical significance of a five-sigma effect (99.99994% confidence) to qualify as a discovery.
To gain some geometric insights and clarification, we will start with a population of three values, x 1, x 2, x 3. This defines a point P = (x 1, x 2, x 3) in R 3. Consider the line L = {(r, r, r) : r ∈ R}. This is the "main diagonal" going through the origin.
For a value that is sampled with an unbiased normally distributed error, the above depicts the proportion of samples that would fall between 0, 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations above and below the actual value.
Any non-linear differentiable function, (,), of two variables, and , can be expanded as + +. If we take the variance on both sides and use the formula [11] for the variance of a linear combination of variables (+) = + + (,), then we obtain | | + | | +, where is the standard deviation of the function , is the standard deviation of , is the standard deviation of and = is the ...
Since this is a biased estimate of the variance of the unobserved errors, the bias is removed by dividing the sum of the squared residuals by df = n − p − 1, instead of n, where df is the number of degrees of freedom (n minus the number of parameters (excluding the intercept) p being estimated - 1). This forms an unbiased estimate of the ...
In that case, the quoted standard errors are easily converted to 68.3% ("one sigma"), 95.4% ("two sigma"), or 99.7% ("three sigma") confidence intervals. [citation needed] In this context, uncertainty depends on both the accuracy and precision of the measurement instrument. The lower the accuracy and precision of an instrument, the larger the ...
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