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Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansion ...
Unemployment is an example of a countercyclical variable. [4] Similarly, business failures and stock market prices tend to be countercyclical. In finance, an asset that tends to do well while the economy as a whole is doing poorly is referred to as countercyclical, and could be for example a business or a financial instrument whose value is ...
In economics, a trough is a low turning point or a local minimum of a business cycle. The time evolution of many economics variables exhibits a wave-like behavior with local maxima (peaks) followed by local minima (troughs). A business cycle may be defined as the period between two consecutive peaks. [1] [2]
It is a finite period of growth, often measured by a rise in real GDP, that marks a reversal from a previous period, for example, while recovering from a recession. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] The explanation of fluctuations in aggregate economic activity between expansions and contractions ("booms" and "busts" within the " business cycle ") is one of the ...
A period may be treated as a week, a month, a quarter, or some other convenient period of time, depending on the data under consideration. (For simplicity, we are ignoring the entry of new workers into the labor force, and the death or retirement of old workers, but these issues can be accounted for as well.)
Unemployment has a short-run cyclical component which depends on the business cycle, and a more permanent structural component, which can be loosely thought of as the average unemployment rate in an economy over extended periods, [6] and which is often termed the natural [6] or structural [7] [5]: 167 rate of unemployment.
For some time, economists have been expecting a torrid pace of hiring to slow down. It finally seems to be happening. Employers created 209,000 new jobs in June , well below the average of 316,000 ...
It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle and relies on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It is named after economist Claudia Sahm, formerly of the Federal Reserve and Council of Economic Advisors. The Sahm rule states: [2]