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Any non-linear differentiable function, (,), of two variables, and , can be expanded as + +. If we take the variance on both sides and use the formula [11] for the variance of a linear combination of variables (+) = + + (,), then we obtain | | + | | +, where is the standard deviation of the function , is the standard deviation of , is the standard deviation of and = is the ...
Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero.
One supposed problem with SMAPE is that it is not symmetric since over- and under-forecasts are not treated equally. The following example illustrates this by applying the second SMAPE formula: Over-forecasting: A t = 100 and F t = 110 give SMAPE = 4.76%; Under-forecasting: A t = 100 and F t = 90 give SMAPE = 5.26%.
The form of Eq(12) is usually the goal of a sensitivity analysis, since it is general, i.e., not tied to a specific set of parameter values, as was the case for the direct-calculation method of Eq(3) or (4), and it is clear basically by inspection which parameters have the most effect should they have systematic errors. For example, if the ...
Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume). [3] Effectively, this overcomes the 'infinite error' issue. [ 4 ]
In statistics, the 68–95–99.7 rule, also known as the empirical rule, and sometimes abbreviated 3sr, is a shorthand used to remember the percentage of values that lie within an interval estimate in a normal distribution: approximately 68%, 95%, and 99.7% of the values lie within one, two, and three standard deviations of the mean, respectively.
For example, if the mean height in a population of 21-year-old men is 1.75 meters, and one randomly chosen man is 1.80 meters tall, then the "error" is 0.05 meters; if the randomly chosen man is 1.70 meters tall, then the "error" is −0.05 meters.
In computing, a roundoff error, [1] also called rounding error, [2] is the difference between the result produced by a given algorithm using exact arithmetic and the result produced by the same algorithm using finite-precision, rounded arithmetic. [3]