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The Climate Forecast System or coupled forecast system (CFS) is a medium to long range numerical weather prediction and a climate model run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to bridge weather and climate timescales. [1] Version 2 became operational as CFSv2 in 2011. [2]
Work by Reichler and Kim at the University of Utah suggests that this model series is one of the top models in a range of atmospheric characteristics. It also has one of the better simulations of El Nino among the IPCC models (van Oldenburgh et al., 2005; Wittenberg et al., 2006).
A related project is the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) for global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs). Coupled models are computer-based models of the Earth's climate, in which different parts (such as atmosphere, oceans, land, ice) are "coupled" together, and interact in simulations. [1]
Weather reconnaissance aircraft, such as this WP-3D Orion, provide data that is then used in numerical weather forecasts.. The atmosphere is a fluid.As such, the idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
More complex models are the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models. These types of models solve the full equations for mass transfer, energy transfer and radiant exchange. In addition, other types of models can be interlinked. For example Earth System Models include also land use as well as land use changes.
ECMWF has incorporated WAM into its deterministic and ensemble forecasting system., [22] known as the Integrated Forecast System (IFS). The model currently comprises 36 frequency bins and 36 propagation directions at an average spatial resolution of 25 km. The model has been coupled to the atmospheric component of IFS since 1998. [23] [24]
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a fully coupled numerical simulation of the Earth system consisting of atmospheric, ocean, ice, land surface, carbon cycle, and other components. CESM includes a climate model providing state-of-art simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future. [ 1 ]