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  2. Prediction interval - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_interval

    The prediction interval is conventionally written as: [, +]. For example, to calculate the 95% prediction interval for a normal distribution with a mean (μ) of 5 and a standard deviation (σ) of 1, then z is approximately 2. Therefore, the lower limit of the prediction interval is approximately 5 ‒ (2⋅1) = 3, and the upper limit is ...

  3. Regression analysis - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_analysis

    The outer curves represent a prediction for a new measurement. [22] Regression models predict a value of the Y variable given known values of the X variables. Prediction within the range of values in the dataset used for model-fitting is known informally as interpolation. Prediction outside this range of the data is known as extrapolation ...

  4. Mean absolute percentage error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_absolute_percentage_error

    The use of the MAPE as a loss function for regression analysis is feasible both on a practical point of view and on a theoretical one, since the existence of an optimal model and the consistency of the empirical risk minimization can be proved. [1]

  5. Simple linear regression - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simple_linear_regression

    The formulas given in the previous section allow one to calculate the point estimates of α and β — that is, the coefficients of the regression line for the given set of data. However, those formulas do not tell us how precise the estimates are, i.e., how much the estimators α ^ {\displaystyle {\widehat {\alpha }}} and β ^ {\displaystyle ...

  6. Posterior predictive distribution - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posterior_predictive...

    In Bayesian statistics, the posterior predictive distribution is the distribution of possible unobserved values conditional on the observed values. [1] [2]Given a set of N i.i.d. observations = {, …,}, a new value ~ will be drawn from a distribution that depends on a parameter , where is the parameter space.

  7. Confidence and prediction bands - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_and_prediction...

    Confidence bands can be constructed around estimates of the empirical distribution function.Simple theory allows the construction of point-wise confidence intervals, but it is also possible to construct a simultaneous confidence band for the cumulative distribution function as a whole by inverting the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, or by using non-parametric likelihood methods.

  8. Bayesian inference - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference

    Bayesian inference (/ ˈ b eɪ z i ə n / BAY-zee-ən or / ˈ b eɪ ʒ ən / BAY-zhən) [1] is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to calculate a probability of a hypothesis, given prior evidence, and update it as more information becomes available.

  9. Predictor–corrector method - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictor–corrector_method

    The initial, "prediction" step, starts from a function fitted to the function-values and derivative-values at a preceding set of points to extrapolate ("anticipate") this function's value at a subsequent, new point.