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If the trend can be assumed to be linear, trend analysis can be undertaken within a formal regression analysis, as described in Trend estimation. If the trends have other shapes than linear, trend testing can be done by non-parametric methods, e.g. Mann-Kendall test, which is a version of Kendall rank correlation coefficient.
Linear trend estimation is a statistical technique used to analyze data patterns. Data patterns, or trends, occur when the information gathered tends to increase or decrease over time or is influenced by changes in an external factor.
In statistics, the Jonckheere trend test [1] (sometimes called the Jonckheere–Terpstra [2] test) is a test for an ordered alternative hypothesis within an independent samples (between-participants) design. It is similar to the Kruskal-Wallis test in that the null hypothesis is that several independent samples are from the same population ...
where R 1 = N 11 + N 12 + N 13, and C 1 = N 11 + N 21, etc. . The trend test statistic is = (), where the t i are weights, and the difference N 1i R 2 −N 2i R 1 can be seen as the difference between N 1i and N 2i after reweighting the rows to have the same total.
A trend line could simply be drawn by eye through a set of data points, but more properly their position and slope is calculated using statistical techniques like linear regression. Trend lines typically are straight lines, although some variations use higher degree polynomials depending on the degree of curvature desired in the line.
The trend-cycle component can just be referred to as the "trend" component, even though it may contain cyclical behavior. [3] For example, a seasonal decomposition of time series by Loess (STL) [ 4 ] plot decomposes a time series into seasonal, trend and irregular components using loess and plots the components separately, whereby the cyclical ...
However, those formulas do not tell us how precise the estimates are, i.e., how much the estimators ^ and ^ vary from sample to sample for the specified sample size. Confidence intervals were devised to give a plausible set of values to the estimates one might have if one repeated the experiment a very large number of times.
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis.