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In June 2023, the New York Fed’s model — which calculates recession probabilities based on the yield spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and three-month bills — estimated a 70% chance of a ...
If the rise of artificial intelligence characterized the stock market surges of 2023 and 2024, then 2025 will be the year the technology sticks around for good.
In an August 2024 report, J.P. Morgan analysts revealed that there's a 35% chance the U.S. will fall into a recession by the end of this year. The probability of a recession by the end of 2025 ...
“Real GDP is likely to grow at a healthy 2% rate in 2025 with unemployment stable in the relatively low 4.2%-4.3% range,” said David Kass, clinical professor of finance at the University of ...
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York regularly attempts to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months using the difference between the 10-year and three-month Treasury ...
Things might change (for the worse) in 2025, though. The Federal Reserve puts the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 42%. That's not an overwhelmingly high percentage, but it's ...
According to updated economic forecasts from the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the central bank sees core inflation hitting 2.5% next year, higher than its previous projection of 2. ...
Jim Paulsen says he expects a 10%-15% stock market correction next year. The market veteran thinks investors are overlooking the risk of an economic slowdown.